Friday, March 31, 2017

Market update (31 March 2017)

The major indices are doing extremely well.

Now let's discuss the five areas where we had warnings in 2007:

1. The weekly MACD could not be any stronger.  It has been rising with each price breakout, suggesting that momentum is accelerating, not weakening as it was in 2007.

2. There clearly have been no price violations.  If anything, the S&P 500 consolidated from 2014 to mid-2016, before breaking out in a big way post-Brexit, then again after the November U.S. presidential election.

3. The XLY:XLP ratio has been climbing nicely over the past year - much different than what we saw in 2007 - but we haven't cleared the 2015 relative high.  A breakout above that level would be extremely bullish.

4. Transports vs. utilities have also increased significantly since November, a good sign, but we haven't seen this ratio clear its early 2015 high and the ratio has been falling in 2017 thus far.

5. The RUT:SPX ratio has been declining since 2014, but it's very strong for the past year.

The absolute price action on major indices is very strong and relative price action continues to support a higher S&P 500 in 2017.  Breakouts on the above key relative ratios would add confirmation to this belief while deterioration in these ratios going forward would be warning flags to be confirmed by price breakdowns.

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