Wednesday, October 3, 2018

ETF Composition - IYT - Transportation Average (iShares)

Fund Name: iShares Transportation Average ETF
Ticker Symbol: IYT
TickerName% of net assetsSectorExchange
1FDXFEDEX CORP12.78IndustrialsNYSE
10KEXKIRBY CORP4.66IndustrialsNYSE
11CSXCSX CORP4.65IndustrialsNASDAQ

By average volume:


Tuesday, October 2, 2018

Dollar Index climbs again

The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.3% at 95.53, looking for its fifth consecutive gain. The greenback built on yesterday's rally during the overnight session, hitting a high in early morning trade. 

The advance was due in part to weakness in the euro, but the Dollar Index backed off its best level of the day after notching a session high (95.74) just above its September high (95.74). The euro has recovered more than half of its decline, but it remains on course for its fifth consecutive loss, as the market's attention is drawn to Italy's fiscal standing once again, sending Italy's 10-yr BTP yield (3.475%) past the post-election high (3.388%).

  • EUR/USD: -0.26% to 1.1544
    • Fifth consecutive decline for the euro
    • Italy's Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio said the government will "not retreat even a millimeter" from its plan for a 2019 deficit of 2.4%. Mr. Di Maio added that the Italian government has no plans to leave the euro
    • Eurozone August PPI +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last 0.7%); +4.2% year-over-year (expected 3.9%; last 4.3%)
    • Spain's September Unemployment Change 20,400 (expected 28,200; last 47,000)
  • GBP/USD: -0.47% to 1.2976
    • 50-day moving average at 1.2978
    • UK's September Construction PMI 52.1 (expected 52.8; last 52.9). September Nationwide HPI +0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last -0.5%); +2.0% year-over-year (expected 1.9%; last 2.0%)
  • USD/CHF: +0.25% to 0.9859
    • Seventh consecutive advance for the dollar
  • USD/JPY: -0.21% to 113.75
    • Action pauses near November high (114.74)
    • Japan's September Household Confidence 43.4 (expected 43.0; last 43.3)
  • USD/CNY: -0.01% to 6.868
    • USD/CNH: -0.04% to 6.884
    • Golden Week in China
  • USD/INR: -0.13% to 73.33
    • Mahatma Gandhi Jayanthi in India
  • USD/RUB: +0.49% to 65.31
  • USD/TRY: +0.70% to 5.977
    • 50-day moving average at 5.9758
  • USD/BRL: -2.75% to 3.907
    • 50-day moving average at 3.976
    • Brazil's August Industrial Production -0.3% month-over-month (expected 0.2%; last -0.1%); +2.0% year-over-year (expected 3.2%; last 4.2%). September IPC-Fipe Inflation Index +0.39% month-over-month (expected 0.40%; last 0.41%)
  • USD/ARS: -3.55% to 37.99
  • USD/MXN: +0.30% to 18.77
    • Session high (18.87) notched just below 50-day moving average (18.88)
  • USD/ZAR: +0.91% to 14.34
    • Action remains near 50-day moving average (14.28)
    • Growing speculation that South Africa may need to ask the IMF for assistance
  • USD/CAD: +0.02% to 1.2818
  • AUD/USD: -0.46% to 0.7187
    • Australia's September AIG Manufacturing Index 59.0 (last 56.7)
  • NZD/USD: +0.05% to 0.6597
    • New Zealand's GDT Price Index -1.9% (last -1.3%)
  • Wednesday, September 26, 2018

    Market update: Federal Reserve hikes short-term rates by 0.25% (26 September 2018)

    The Federal Reserve increased short-term interest rates on Wednesday, as expected, raising the fed funds target range by 25 basis points to 2.00-2.25%.
    • Fed hikes interest rates, raises its economic outlook and drops 'accommodative' language
    • Fed's Powell: Lack of 'accomodative' language a sign policy inline with expectations

    Stocks were up modestly ahead of the release of the Fed's decision, which crossed the wires at 2:00 PM ET, and extended gains after the central bank removed the word 'accommodative' from its policy statement. However, that initial move was reversed, and then some, following a post-decision press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, during which he said the language change didn't signal a change in the Fed's path for rate hikes.

    The S&P 500 was up as much as 0.5% on Wednesday but fell sharply in the final minutes of the session to finish with a loss of 0.3%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite ended lower by 0.2%, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average finished lower by 0.4%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 lost 1.0%.

    As for rate-hike projections, the Fed still appears to be on track to raise rates another 25 basis points in December, with the CME FedWatch Tool putting the chances at 79.2%. Beyond 2018, the Fed's dot plot showed expectations for three rate hikes in 2019 (unchanged from June) and one in 2020 (also unchanged from June).

    U.S. Treasury yields fell following the Fed's policy announcement, although the 2-yr yield managed to close unchanged at 2.83%. The yield on the benchmark 10-yr Treasury note dropped four basis points to 3.06%. In currencies, the U.S. Dollar Index finished +0.2% at 93.90, but was volatile after the release.

    The drop in Treasury yields weighed on the rate-sensitive financial sector, which finished at the bottom of the sector standings with a loss of 1.3%. The energy sector (-1.0%) was another notable laggard, dropping in tandem with the price of crude oil; WTI crude futures finished -1.0% at $71.58/bbl.

    Sunday, September 23, 2018

    Argentine stocks

  • finviz - Argentine stocks:
  • charts below
  • Argentina’s benchmark: Merval stock index

  • TickerCompanySectorIndustryMarket Cap ▼
    CEPUCentral Puerto S.A.UtilitiesElectric Utilities18.21B
    MELIMercadoLibre, Inc.ServicesCatalog & Mail Order Houses13.93B
    YPFYPF Sociedad AnonimaBasic MaterialsMajor Integrated Oil & Gas6.89B
    GGALGrupo Financiero Galicia S.A.FinancialForeign Regional Banks3.43B
    BMABanco Macro S.A.FinancialForeign Regional Banks3.32B
    PAMPampa Energia S.A.UtilitiesElectric Utilities3.03B
    TEOTelecom Argentina S.A.TechnologyDiversified Communication Services2.55B
    BFRBBVA Banco Frances S.A.FinancialForeign Regional Banks2.52B
    ARCOArcos Dorados Holdings Inc.ServicesRestaurants1.39B
    TGSTransportadora de Gas del Sur S.A.UtilitiesGas Utilities1.35B
    LOMALoma Negra Compania Industrial Argentina Sociedad AnonimaIndustrial GoodsGeneral Building Materials1.19B, Corp.ServicesLodging1.18B
    IRSIRSA Inversiones y Representaciones Sociedad AnonimaFinancialReal Estate Development974.58M
    CRESYCresud Sociedad Anonima Comercial, Inmobiliaria, Financiera y AgropecuariaConsumer GoodsFarm Products787.73M
    EDNEmpresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte Sociedad AnonimaUtilitiesElectric Utilities658.95M
    SUPVGrupo Supervielle S.A.FinancialForeign Regional Banks624.19M
    (market cap as of 9/21/18)

    By average volume:  (day's change


    Monday, August 27, 2018

    Market update : The market busts out of 7-month long correction (27 August 2018)

    Wall Street extended Friday's push into record territory on Monday, with the S&P 500 registering its second straight record close.  President Donald Trump said the U.S. has reached an agreement with Mexico to enter into a new trade deal, calling it the U.S.-Mexico trade pact.  With a U.S.-Mexico deal in place, Canada will now come to the negotiating table as the three nations look to fully replace their three-way NAFTA deal.
    • S&P 500 today's close: 2896;  Jan 26 close:   2872
    • Nasdaq Composite +16.1% YTD
    • Russell 2000 +12.6% YTD
    • S&P 500 +8.4% YTD
    • Dow Jones Industrial Average +5.4% YTD
    $SPY since the 2016 Election (22 months) with Fibonacci retracement.

    A table showing the performance of various asset classes since the prior S&P 500 high on 1/26.  We also show YTD and QTD performance.  As you see, US equities have been dramatically outperforming international stocks.

    Friday, August 10, 2018

    Market update : Turkish Lira Rattles Investors Around the Globe (10 August 2018)

    The S&P 500 started the week on a positive note, extending last week's winning streak and coming within 0.5% of its January 26 record high (26-Jan-18 close 2872. However, the index struggled in the back half of the week, especially on Friday amid a sharp drop in the Turkish lira, eventually settling with a weekly loss of 0.3% -- its first weekly loss since late June.
    • The Turkish lira tumbled to a record low against the dollar largely over worries about President Tayyip Erdogan’s influence over the economy, his repeated calls for lower interest rates in the face of high inflation, and a deepening rift with the United States. President Trump doubled tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from Turkey, deepening the currency's losses and raising concerns that the crisis could weigh on other economies. 
    • Turkey is now facing the most serious financial crisis since Mr Erdogan took office 15 years ago.  The decline in the Turkish lira and rising borrowing costs cause a big headache for many Turkish companies, as they have borrowed in foreign currency despite receiving revenues in local currency.
    • In a tumultuous day on the financial markets, the lira tumbled by 14.3% against the dollar to TL6.47 from the previous New York close. At one stage it fell as much as 18.5%. The currency has lost more than 40% of its value so far this year. The lira’s implosion rippled across other emerging market currencies, pulling the likes of the South African rand, the Argentine peso and the Russian rouble lower by between 1.5 and 3.5%.

    $SPY since the 2016 Election (21 months) with Fibonacci retracement. 

    $SPX - 6 months

    President Trump added to the pressure when he made a shock announcement on Twitter. “I have just authorised a doubling of Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish Lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong Dollar!” he tweeted. “Aluminum will now be 20% and Steel 50%. Our relations with Turkey are not good at this time!”

    Turkish lira

  • Mr Erdogan urged Turks to stand firm and defend their currency. “If there is anyone who has dollars, euros or gold under the pillow, he should go and convert this at the bank,” Mr Erdogan said.
  • He also held talks by telephone with Russian president Vladimir Putin to discuss economic and commercial ties.

  • Here's how Turkey's currency has fallen against the dollar in the past 10 years – and some reasons for the fall. 

    Other currencies - largest ETFs

    Fri 8/10/18 perf, weekly charts (daily charts, monthly charts)

    Country ETFs - largest drops

    Fri 8/10/18 perf, weekly charts (daily chartsmonthly charts)

    Euro banks
    European banks who have lent to Turkey are feeling the heat. Spanish banks have the biggest total exposure, with more than 30% of total foreign claims on Turkey--about double what it was in early 2013. French banks are next at about 15%, with UK banks accounting for 7% of total foreign claims.

    • The Financial Times reported that the European Central Bank is concerned about eurozone banks' exposure to Turkey because of the tanking lira. The ECB declined to comment.
    • Data from the Bank for International Settlements show eurozone banks have loans worth over $150 billion in Turkey. Spanish, French and Italian banks are the most exposed.
    • Shares in some of Europe's biggest banks were hard hit on Friday. Italy's UniCredit (UNCFF) shed 5.6% and Spanish lender BBVA (BFR) dropped 5.5%. France's BNP Paribas (BNPQF) was off by 4.3% and Deutsche Bank (DB) fell 5.3%.

    The  Evangelical preacher  Andrew Brunson was  released from prison in July 2018.  The Trump administration had thought that it had secured a deal to release the pastor, but Turkey instead put him under house arrest, which angered Washington.

    Recep Tayyip Erdogan, president and former prime minister of Turkey.

    Under Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turkey has lifted restrictions on public expression of religion, including ending the ban on women wearing Islamic-style headscarves.
    • Born: February 26, 1954;  Istanbul, Turkey
    • 2003-2014 - Serves as prime minister.
    • August 10, 2014 - Erdogan is elected president during the first-ever direct elections.
    • July 15-16, 2016 - During an attempted coup by a faction of the military, at least 161 people are killed and 1,140 wounded. Erdogan addresses the nation via FaceTime and urges people to take to the streets to stand up to the military faction behind the uprising. He blames the coup attempt on cleric and rival Fethullah Gulen, who lives in self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania.
    • June 24, 2018 - Is re-elected president.
    • The Turkish economy has expanded rapidly this year compared with 2017. But its growth in recent years has been fueled by construction financed largely by foreign investors.
    • The European Central Bank expressed concern about the country when President Recep Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected in a snap vote in June and whose growing power has raised questions about the independence of the country’s central bank.

    U.S. - Turkey grievances (military and political)
    • An evangelical preacher, Andrew Brunson,  is one of about 20 Americans, including a NASA scientist and chemistry professor from Pennsylvania, who have been swept up in Mr. Erdogan’s crackdown since the failed coup two years ago. 
    • Mr. Brunson who was applying for Turkish permanent residency, having lived there 23 years, was imprisoned on October 7, 2016, accused of being a member of the G├╝len movement, which the Turkish government considers to be a terrorist organization.  On July 26, 2018, US Vice President Pence called on Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to release Brunson or face significant sanctions.  President Trump has raised the pressure over the issue because he wants to appeal to Evangelical voters ahead of November midterm elections.
    • Turkey is a major player in the Middle East that’s engaged in war.  American support for Kurds and backing of Kurdish terrorists in Syria, the number one enemy of Turks, has galvanized Turks against the US, now broadly seen as Turkey's enemy. America's gungho pro-Saudi/pro-Israeli pivot & participation in the ongoing genocide in Yemen isn't helping; Turkey sees itself as the moderate leader of the Islamic world and Saudi Arabia as a dangerous rival. 
    • Trump's abandonment of the Iran nuclear deal is another sore point; nearly half of Turkey's oil imports come from Iran, and the re-imposition of sanctions against Iran hurts Turkey's economy.
    • American relations with Turkey were further aggravated by Mr. Erdogan’s embrace of Russia, particularly when Turkey signed a deal in  September 2017 to purchase Russia’s S-400 surface-to-air-missile system. The deal would mean Russian military technicians operating in NATO’s backyard. What especially irked the United States was that Turkey had also been in the midst of purchasing American F-35 joint strike fighters. Congress has since moved to block deliveries unless Turkey cancels the Russia deal. 
    • Mr. Erdogan says the 2016 coup was orchestrated from the United States, and specifically by a Muslim cleric, Fethullah Gulen, from his self-imposed exile in Pennsylvania. Turkish authorities have demanded that he be extradited, something American officials have dismissed, and the detained Americans are widely seen as bargaining chips.