Friday, June 28, 2019

ETF month and year-to-date performance

Note the collapse in equity markets at the end of 2018 makes the year-to-date gains look really strong.
 The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high last week, but the index is essentially flat since hitting new highs nine months ago.

Sector/industry/index ETF (descending MTD) MTD, YTD as we wrap up the second quarter
  • Oil services OIH +12.69% +5.06%
  • Semis SMH +12.37% +26.47%
  • Materials XLB +10.71% +15.60%
  • Biotech XBI +10.06% +21.85%
  • Oil USO +8.38% +24.48%
  • Technology XLK +8.33% +25.65%
  • Energy XLE +8.04% +10.71%
  • Gold GLD +7.91% +9.76%
  • Cons. Discretionary XLY +7.33% +20.26%
  • Industrials XLI +7.23% +19.95%
  • Nasdaq 100 QQQ +7.10% +20.77%
  • Transports IYT +7.04% +13.90%
  • DJIA DIA +6.92% +13.81%
  • Russell 2000 IWM +6.55% +16.07%
  • S&P 500 SPY +6.23% +17.01%
  • Financials XLF +5.84% +15.58%
  • Retail XRT +5.74% +3.32%
  • Healthcare XLV +5.72% +6.66%
  • Oil/gas E&P XOP +5.72% +2.05%
  • Software IGV +5.67% +25.60%
  • Emerging mkts EEM +5.16% +9.60%
  • Silver SLV +5.02% -1.27%
  • Cons. Staples XLP +4.28% +14.20%
  • Comm. Services XLC +4.23% +18.90%
  • Internet FDN +3.93% +22.90%
  • Utilities XLU +2.09% +12.38%
  • Long Bond TLT +0.88% +9.45%
  • Real Estate XLRE +0.58% +18.32%


Today's Data
Commodities:

  • WTI crude: -1.7% to $58.38/bbl
  • Gold: +0.1% to $1413.05/ozt
  • Copper: -0.5% to $2.71/lb
Currencies:
  • EUR/USD: +0.1% to 1.1373
  • GBP/USD: +0.3% to 1.2698
  • USD/CNH: UNCH at 6.8708
  • USD/JPY: UNCH at 107.79


Metals Settlement Prices:
  • Aug gold settled today's session $1.50 higher (+0.1%) at $1413.05/oz
  • Sept silver settled today's session $0.05 higher (+0.3%) at $15.34/oz
  • Sept copper settled $0.01 lower (-0.4%) at $2.71/lb
Agriculture Settlement Prices:
  • July corn settled $0.19 lower (-4.3%) at $4.26/bushel
  • July wheat settled $0.20 lower (-3.7%) at $5.26/bushel
  • July soybeans settled $0.11 higher (+1.2%) at $9.05/bushel
    • Grains took a hit today following the release of the USDA annual acreage and quarterly grain stocks reports
    • Maybe the most notable data was in the corn data. The USDA showed that corn acres planted is expected to come in at 91.7 mln acres this year, way above analyst expectations of about 87 mln
    • In the most recent monthly WASDE report, the USDA cut corn acres planted by 3 million acres to 89.8 million acres
    • However, the acreage report comes out of a different agency in the USDA and the acreage report is not an update to the monthly WASDE report, so the number today was a big surprise
Energy Settlement Prices:
  • July Crude Oil futures fell $0.99 (-1.7%) to $58.38/barrel
    • REMINDER: Big OPEC meeting on Monday and Tuesday
    • A key topic will be whether to extend the OPEC+ production cuts into the second half of 2019
  • July Natural Gas settles $0.02 lower (-0.9%) at $2.31/MMBtu
  • July RBOB Gasoline settled $0.02 lower (-1.0%) at $1.89/gallon
  • July Heating oil futures settled $0.02 lower (-1.0%) at $1.94/gallon

Sunday, June 2, 2019

Cannabis (marijuana) stocks

The MJ ETF peaked when recreational cannabis went into effect in the fall of 2018 after staging a massive run leading up to the highly anticipated event.

Since then, the onus has been on companies to deliver. Most of them have begun reporting enviably strong sales growth, but the euphoric valuations had priced in a generous amount of future success.

The cannabis market is still nascent and the THC and CBD markets have tremendous long-term potential. Headwinds in the form of regulations and capacity constraints appear to be abating as the industry starts to mature. The growth outlook remains very promising.


(by market cap)                
Ticker       Company name Mkt Cap
  • MJ  The Cannabis ETF
  • CGC  Canopy Growth  11.359B; Ontario, Canada
  • ACB  Aurora Cannabis  6.648B; Edmonton, Canada; medical cannabis products. As of September 2018, it had eight licensed production facilities, five sales licenses, and operations in 18 countries.  
  • CRON  Cronos  4.698B; Toronto, Canada
  • TLRY  Tilray  4.146B; BC, Canada
  • APHA  Aphria  1.531B; Ontario, Canada
  • IIPR  Innovative Industrial Properties  1.286B; acquires industrial properties and rents space to marijuana growers.
  • HEXO  HEXO Corp.  1.171B; Quebec-based 
  • OGI  Organigram  842.522M; Canada; The company’s stock began trading on the Nasdaq on May 21, 19. Previously it was traded in Canada and over the counter in the U.S.
  • KSHB  KushCo  440.088M; California; packaging supplies, vaporizer cartridges, heating technologies, batteries
  • CTST  CannTrust  361.912M; Ontario, Canada
  • NBEV  New Age Beverages  298.774M; Denver, Colorado
  • PYX  Pyxus Int'l  140.531M; Morrisville, North Carolina; Tobacco company with a minor investment made in a few cannabis operators.
  • KERN  Akerna  102.477M; Orlando, Florida

OTC Markets
  • CURLF  (OTCMKTS)  Curaleaf  2.939B; Wakefield, Massachusetts
  • CRLBF (OTCMKTS) Cresco Labs  1.058B; Chicago, Illinois
  • CWBHF (OTCMKTS)  Charlotte's Web  647.919M; Boulder, Colorado
  • TGODF  (OTCMKTS) The Green Organic Dutchman 644.674M; Mississauga, Canada
  • ACRGF   (OTCMKTS) Acreage Holdings  526.485M; NYC-based
  • CVSI  (OTCMKTS) CV Sciences  409.426M;  Nevada-based
  • ORHOF  (OTCMKTS)  Origin House  387.251M; Ottawa, Canada;  Invests in the legal cannabis sector, prefers to take majority stake in companies. 
  • MMNFF (OTCMKTS) MedMen Enterprises  351.475M; Culver City, California
  • GGBXF  (OTCMKTS)  Green Growth Brands  324.663M; Toronto, Canada; Offers cannabis, tetrahydro cannabidol, cannabidiol, and cannabis-infused consumer products, as well as technology and consulting services for the cannabis industry. As of June 12, 2019, it operated 50 Seventh Sense branded botanical therapy shops.
  • SPRWF  (OTCMKTS)  The Supreme Cannabis Company  296.619M  Toronto, Canada
  • CURR (OTCMKTS) CURE Pharmaceutical  154.265M; Oxnard, California
  • NXTTF   (OTCMKTS)  Namaste Technologies  125.366M; Vancouver, Canada
  • VVCIF (OTCMKTS)  VIVO Cannabis  113.304M; Canada 
  • TRTC  (OTCMKTS)  Terra Tech 54.163M; Irvine, California
  • IMLFF  (OTCMKTS)  InMed Pharmaceuticals  43.592M; Vancouver, Canada; develops cannabinoid-based therapies
  • CBDS  (OTCMKTS)  Cannabis Sativa  37.865M; Nevada; skin care products used to relieve pain for sore muscles, joints, arthritic, and back pain; 
  • CANN  (OTCMKTS)  General Cannabis  28.998M; Denver, Colorado

Horizons Marijuana Life Sciences Index ETF - Canada



Canada Marijuana Stocks
Canada's marijuana stocks launched their invasion of U.S. exchanges in February 2018, when Cronos Group (CRON) became the first straight-up pot company to list on the Nasdaq. In the months since, recreational pot use turned legal in Canada and seven other Canadian pot producers piled into U.S. exchanges competing to pick up mainstream credibility and a lot more investor cash.

Canopy Growth stock followed Cronos Group, listing on the New York Stock Exchange in May 2018. Canopy has since become the world's most valuable weed company, with a market capitalization of $9 billion.

Last July, Tilray followed, via an IPO — making it the first weed company to debut exclusively on a U.S. exchange. Every other Canadian pot producer trading on a U.S. exchange also trades in Canada.

Aurora Cannabis (ACB) listed on the NYSE in October, and Aphria (APHA) in November. Hexo hit the NYSE American in January. CannTrust landed on the NYSE in February, but CannTrust stock crashed after running afoul of regulators. Organigram (OGI) listed on the Nasdaq in May.

The companies can list on the U.S. platforms because they don't violate federal law in their own country.

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

Market update: key market catalysts (19 March 2019)

SPY daily and monthly

$SPX last 5 sessions

1.  Bank of America/Merrill Lynch fund manager survey
  • Latest survey showed allocation to equities is at its lowest since September 2016.  Implies many fund managers have missed/trailed the 2019 rally effort and will need to play catch up, providing more fuel to keep the rally going.
2.  Green shoots of economic optimism
  • Economic sentiment in Germany was better than expected in March and employment trends in the UK were also better than expected, highlighted by the lowest unemployment rate (3.9%) since 1975, according to Reuters.
  • The reassuring data helped stoke the narrative that the global economy may be bottoming (or has bottomed), which has driven buying interest in cyclical sectors.
3.  Ongoing leadership from the semiconductor stocks
  • This industry group is regarded as having leading indicator status, so it resonates as a positive marker that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 21.9% year-to-date, including today's 1.4% gain.
  • Strength in the semis has been a key source of support for the information technology sector (+0.3%), which is the market's most heavily-weighted sector.
4.  Frontrunning the Fed
  • The stock market knows the Fed is on its side at the moment.  On Wednesday, it expects the FOMC to reinforce that position by holding the fed funds rate steady and reiterating a patient mindset. 
  • This expectation, and the speculation that the dot plot will show a reduced rate-hike projection for 2019 (the median estimate in December called for two rate hikes), and that the Fed could announce a plan regarding the timing for ending its balance sheet runoff, have helped keep selling interest in check.

President Trump hosts Brazil’s new leader

Today, President Trump welcomed the recently elected President of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, to the White House.

President Bolsonaro’s election marked a historic opportunity for the United States and Brazil—the two largest democracies in the Western Hemisphere—to build a new partnership focused on increased prosperity, strong security, and national sovereignty.

Perhaps most important, Brazil is a crucial ally in President Trump’s stand against the corrupt, socialist Maduro dictatorship in Venezuela. President Bolsonaro reiterated that Brazil stands with Venezuelan Interim President Juan Guaido, as well as with the democratically elected National Assembly and the Venezuelan people in their fight against tyranny.

“The twilight hour of socialism has arrived in our hemisphere,” President Trump said from the Rose Garden this afternoon. “And hopefully, by the way, it’s also arrived—that twilight hour—in our great country.”

“I have always admired the United States of America,” President Bolsonaro added. “And this sense of admiration has just increased after you took office.”

President Trump said he will designate Brazil as a major non-NATO ally during the visit of Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro to the White House. Argentina is the only other South American country with that designation.


President Jair Bolsonaro, left, presents Donald Trump with a Brazil national football jersey after the US leader gave him a US soccer team shirt

Sunday, March 3, 2019

Software stocks

(by market cap)                        
Company name Mkt Cap
  • MSFT  Microsoft  1.027T
  • ORCL  Oracle  196.346B; enterprise application software
  • CRM  Salesforce.com  117.825B : marketing tools
  • SAP   SAP SE  167.375B; Germany; enterprise application software
  • ADBE  Adobe   148.399B
  • NOW   ServiceNow 50.937B : Information-technology service management software. Its self-service portal enables employees to access administrative and workflow tools. ServiceNow has expanded into software for human resources and customer service management.
  • WDAY  Workday 46.461B : Pleasanton, Calif.-based Workday sells software for human capital management, such as payroll tools. It's expanding into financial management software. Workday acquired Adaptive Insights in 2018.
  • ADSK  Autodesk  37.775B
  • TEAM  Atlassian 31.541B : Sells collaboration tools for software developers and tech departments. Analysts say Atlassian's acquisition of AgileCraft makes a good fit with its project-tracking tools.
  • VEEV  Veeva Systems 23.873B : medical software maker 
  • OKTA  Okta 14.097B : identity and security management
  • PAYC  Paycom Software 13.265B : human-resources software
  • ULTI  Ultimate Software 10.498B : human-resources software
  • DBX  Dropbox 10.3B : file-sharing platform; collaborative document operations for businesses.
  • TTD  The Trade Desk 10.142B : specializes in “programmatic advertising”.  It automates the process of ad buying in real time. By searching the nearly 20 digital-ad exchanges, TTD allows advertisers to instantly find exactly who they want to target their ad to. Moreover, it’s able to do so whether that’s on their computer, smartphone or other devices.  The Trade Desk’s programs are so fast and successful, they are able to place roughly 9 million ads per second through their online auctions. This creates a much more efficient and cost-effective way for companies to reach consumers.
  • ZEN  Zendesk  10.089B : marketing tools
  • ZS  Zscaler  9.631B : cybersecurity
  • COUP   Coupa Software  8.353B; cloud-based business spend management platform.
  • AYX Alteryx 7.413B
  • HUBS  HubSpot 7.179B : Cambridge, Mass.-based HubSpot specializes in helping businesses automate marketing and sales operations. Its cloud-based platform assists clients in social media, search engine optimization and website content management.
  • PLAN  Anaplan  6.773B
  • PFPT  Proofpoint  6.695B : cybersecurity
  • SMAR  Smartsheet  5.599B : application for collaboration and work management. Competes with Microsoft Project.
  • RP  Real Page 5.567B : rental housing specialist  
  • AVLR  Avalara  5.558B
  • PS  Pluralsight 4.198B : online courses and certification programs.
  • CSOD  Cornerstone OnDemand 3.456B : human-resources software
  • FEYE  FireEye 3.037B : cybersecurity
  • RPD   Rapid7  2.856B 
  • ALRM  Alarm Holdings 2.586B : home security

Software as a service (or SaaS) vs. cloud stocks
SaaS companies are now viewed by many analysts as cloud-computing stocks. However, the two technologies evolved separately.
  • SaaS came first. SaaS pioneer Salesforce (CRM) was started in 1999. Amazon (AMZN)-owned cloud software pioneer Amazon Web Services, founded in 2006, didn't hit $1 billion in sales until 2012.
  • The customers of SaaS companies purchase renewable subscriptions, rather than one-time software licenses. Customers receive automatic software updates via the web.
  • Cloud customers pay as they go, leasing computing resources by the minute or hour via the web. That's not a subscription model. But SaaS also is an on-demand service, making it cloudlike.
  • SaaS is one of three main categories of cloud computing, alongside infrastructure as a service (IaaS) and platform as a service (PaaS).
  • SaaS “sits in the cloud.” So cloud computing offers additional services other than just SaaS, while SaaS is only that: software delivered to an end user from a cloud environment.
  • SaaS companies post the best revenue growth. In addition, SaaS stocks engage in the most mergers and acquisitions. As a result, SaaS stocks trade at the highest multiples.

Thursday, February 28, 2019

Auto stocks

(by market cap)                        
Company name Mkt Cap
  1. TM Toyota Motor  Japan 183.84B
  2. HMC Honda Motor Co. Japan 65.66B
  3. F Ford Motor Co. USA 60.67B
  4. GM General Motors  USA 51.22B
  5. NSANY Nissan Motor Co. Japan 36.48B
  6. TSLA Tesla Motors USA 31.01B
  7. TTM Tata Motors Ltd. India 21.16B
  8. FCAU Fiat Chrysler   20.37B
  9. SPAR  Spartan Motors 515.88M
  10. KNDI Kandi Technologies China 393.78M
  11. SORL SORL Auto Parts China 87.84M
  12. +RACE
  13. +NIO Inc. (NIO)  3.567B ; Electric autonomous vehicles, "China’s Tesla"
finviz charts (ave vol - 30 days, new window): http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=TM,HMC,F,GM,NSANY,TSLA,TTM,KNDI,SORL&ta=0&o=-averagevolume


Others:
  • BMW (OTC: BAMXY)
  • Mercedes-Benz (OTCPK:DDAIF)
  • Nissan (OTCPK:NSANY)
  • PSA Peugeot Citroen (OTCPK:PEUGF)
  • Renault (OTC:RNSDF)
  • Volkswagen AG (OTC: VLKAY)
  • Hyundai (OTCPK:HYMLF)
  • Subaru (OTCPK:FUJHY)
  • Porsche (OTCPK:POAHY)
  • Mazda (OTCPK:MZDAY)
9/15:  Volkswagen emission-cheating scandal - VW, BMW, GM, F and S&P  

Also related to auto industry:
  • JCI      Johnson Controls    34.77B
  • ORLY   O'Reilly Automotive   23.24B
  • AZO   AutoZone    22.28B
  • MGA  Magna International  16.95B
  • AA      Alcoa           16.12B
  • GPC   Genuine Parts Company   14.22B
  • AAP   Advance Auto Parts   11.15B
  • KMX   CarMax   10.61B
  • AN    AutoNation      6.49B     automotive retailer
  • ADNT   Adient     6.0B   The world's largest global automotive seating supplier. (spinoff from Johnson Controls)
  • PAG  Penske Automotive 3.87B
  • GPI   Group 1 Automotive  1.77B 
  • AXL    American Axle & Manufacturing 1.41B   automotive supplier
  • MTOR   Meritor  1.28B
  • UXIN Uxin  788.19M; operates a used car e-commerce platform in China
  • CARZ  First Trust NASDAQ Global Auto ETF   33.50M
  • +Carvana CVNA; +TRUE
  • +MPAA


      

6/15:  major automakers - 3 months (click for a live chart)


Share of global car market, 2017:
  • Toyota: 9.2%
  • Volkswagen: 7.2%
  • Ford: 6.5%
  • Honda: 5.4%
  • Nissan: 5.4%
  • Hyundai: 4.7%
  • Chevrolet: 4.4%
  • Kia: 3%
  • Renault: 2.8%
  • Mercedes: 2.7%
  • Peugeot: 2.2%
  • BMW: 2.2%
  • Audi: 2%
  • Maruti: 1.7%
  • Mazda: 1.7%
  • Fiat: 1.7%
  • Suzuki: 1.6%
  • Buick: 1.5%
  • Jeep: 1.5%
(GAD)

Tuesday, February 26, 2019

Marijuana news



  • 7/12/19: Innovative Industrial Properties (IIPR) announces public offering of 1.25 mln shares of common stock. The company intends to use proceeds to invest in specialized industrial real estate assets that support the regulated cannabis cultivation and processing industry that are consistent with its investment strategy as well as for general corporate purposes.
  • 7/7/19: Canopy Growth (CGC) Founder Bruce Linton was ousted from his role as co-CEO. He did a great job scaling the largest cannabis company in the world, but Constellation Brands (STZ) sought a more sound operational manger for the next phase of growth at its multi-billion dollar cannabis investment.
  • 7/12/19: CannTrust (CTST) implements voluntary hold on sale and shipment of all cannabis products as a precaution while Health Canada visits and reviews its Vaughan, Ontario manufacturing facility. CannTrust placed a hold on medical sales through their customer service line and online as of 11:59 p.m. on July 10. CannTrust is working closely with the regulator through the review process and expects to provide further detail of the duration of the hold and other developments as they become available.  CannTrust announced that it was non-compliant with certain regulations in Canada
  • 5/21/19: Aphria (APHA) completes German tender process and receives fifth culitvation license in Germany.  Co announced that its German subsidiary Aphria Deutschland GmbH had been awarded a fifth lot for the cultivation of medical cannabis in Germany as part of the Company's previously awarded license from the German Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices.   The additional lot was provisionally awarded to Aphria Germany in April and was secured following a review by a German court, which affirmed the original decision by the BfArM.
  • 4/10/19:  Aurora Cannabis Inc. (ACB) announced an update on the status of Aurora Sun, the Company's latest and largest Sky Class facility, which is currently under construction in Medicine Hat, Alberta. To support rapidly growing global demand for high-quality medical cannabis in Canada and abroad, the facility will be expanded to 1.62 million square feet, representing a 33% increase from its originally planned 1.2 million square feet. With the Sky Class production philosophy proven at Aurora Sky, the Company is confident in projecting an expected production capacity at Aurora Sun in excess of 230,000 kg of high-quality cannabis per annum.
  • 3/21/19: CVS (NYSE:CVS)  is selling some cannabis-based products in eight states, Alabama, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and Tennessee. Cannabidiol, or CBD, is the non-psychoactive element in marijuana. The pharmacy chain said the available products include topicals such as creams, sprays and lotions, but will not sell any CBD-containing supplements or food additives. CVS said the products comply with applicable laws.
  • 2/26/19: Aurora Cannabis (ACB) to acquire a 51% ownership interest in Gaia Pharm. The co announced that it has agreed to terms to acquire a 51% ownership interest in Gaia Pharm Lda., a license applicant in Portugal, to establish a local facility to produce medical cannabis and derivative products. The company will be renamed "Aurora Portugal Lda". On February 21, 2019, Gaia Pharm Lda. received approval of its application to construct an EU GMP compliant cannabis cultivation facility from INFARMED, a division of the Portuguese Health Ministry, which is responsible for the evaluation, authorization, regulation and control of human medicines as well as health products for the protection of public health.

Monday, January 28, 2019

The U.S. announces sanctions on Venezuela's state oil firm PDVSA

The Trump administration issued new sanctions on Venezuela’s PDVSA that effectively block the regime of President Nicolas Maduro from exporting crude to the U.S.

  • PDVSA is the state-owned oil & gas company.
  • Venezuela has the largest oil reserves in the world.
  • The U.S. recognizes National Assembly leader Juan Guaidó as interim president of Venezuela. Guaidó has promised to host free and fair elections.
  • The Trump administration announced it is blocking all U.S. revenue to Venezuela’s national oil company and called on members of the armed forces to switch their allegiance to Juan Guaidó.



Juan Guaidó, left, and Nicolás Maduro are locked in a confrontation over the right to govern Venezuela.


Oil has advanced 14 percent this year as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies curbed output to ease glut concerns. Nevertheless, price gains have been capped by record American output, expanding stockpiles and the U.S.-China trade war. Talks between the world’s two biggest economies later this week may provide the catalyst for crude to break out of its recent tight trading range.

West Texas Intermediate crude for March delivery rose 19 cents to $52.18 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:11 a.m. in Singapore. The contract fell $1.70 to close at $51.99 a barrel on Monday.

Brent for March settlement declined 10 cents to $59.83. It broke below $60 for the first time in almost two weeks on Monday, dropping $1.71 to $59.93 on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The global benchmark crude was at a $7.94 premium to WTI.