U.S. stocks are seen signaling economic bottom is near

U.S. stocks are signaling that the economy’s coronavirus-driven decline may reach a low point sooner rather than later, according to Jim Paulsen, Leuthold Group Inc.’s chief investment strategist. 

The performance of restaurant, auto and homebuilding shares in the S&P 500 Index was among the indicators he cited in a report Friday. All three groups rose more than 19% in the past three weeks and surpassed the S&P 500’s gain of 14%, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “Markets may be giving the best information available regarding the timing of a potential bottom in the economy,” Paulsen wrote.

Restaurants

by market cap
Company name Mkt Cap▼

1. MCD McDonald's  224.33B
2. SBUX    Starbucks  104.76B
3. CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill  51.40B
4. YUM Yum! Brands 43.18B (KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell)
5. QSR   Restaurant Brands Int'l  31.71B; owner of Burger King, Tim Hortons, Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen;  
6. DRI Darden Restaurants  22.95B;  the parent company of brands like Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, etc.
7. YUMC    Yum China  17.86B
8. DPZ Domino's Pizza  13.86B
9. TXRH    Texas Roadhouse   11.90B
10. BROS    Dutch Bros  11.90B
11. WING   Wingstop  7.38B
12. CAVA   Cava Group   7.03B
13. EAT Brinker Int'l 6.87B; Chili's Grill & Bar, Maggiano's Little Italy
14. SHAK   Shake Shack   3.78B
15. CAKE The Cheesecake Factory 2.89B
16. ARCO Arcos Dorados  1.72B
17. WEN The Wendy's Co 1.48B
18. CHA   Chagee Holdings Ltd. ADR  1.39B; China
19. BH   Biglari Holdings Inc 1.18B; the Restaurant Operations segment includes Steak n Shake and Western Sizzlin.
20. PZZA   Papa John's   1.15B
21. FWRG   First Watch Restaurant Group   975.90M
22. HDL   Super Hi International   945.56M; Singapore
23. BJRI BJ's Restaurants 883.86M
24. KRUS   Kura Sushi USA 809.16M
25. BRCB   Black Rock Coffee Bar  746.33M
26. SG   Sweetgreen  726.81M
27. CNNE   Cannae Holdings  710.20M
28. PLAY Dave & Buster's 673.10M
29. CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store 672.52M
30. BLMN  Bloomin' Brands  511.30M (Carrabba's Italian Grill, Fleming's Prime Steakhouse & Wine Bar, Outback Steakhouse)
31. DIN Dine Brands Global 496.03M; Applebee's and IHOP
32. PTLO Portillos 425.87M
33. NATH Nathan's Famous, Inc 414.03M
34. JACK Jack in the Box  400.59M
35. LOCO   El Pollo Loco   303.44M
36. VENU   Venu Holding Corp  237.32M
37. RICK   RCI Hospitality Holdings  209.64M
38. MB   Masterbeef Group  96.75M; Hong Kong
39. CHSN   Chanson International  83.02M; China
40. GENK   GEN Restaurant Group 68.50M
41. STKS   ONE Group Hospitality  67.19M
42. RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers 67.01M
43. THCH   TH International Ltd  66.82M; China
44. BDL   Flanigan's Enterprises, Inc  60.45M
45. RAVE   Rave Restaurant Group  47.47M
46. NDLS   Noodles & Company   30.92M
47. ARKR   Ark Restaurants Corp  23.66M
48. PETZ   TDH Holdings Inc  12.39M; China
49. GTIM Good Times Restaurants 12.25M
50. REBN   Reborn Coffee 11.30M
51. TWNP   Twin Hospitality Group 9.11M
52. CCHH   CCH Holdings 8.94M; Malaysia; 2025 IPO
53. BTBD   BT Brands 7.90M; 2021 IPO
54. 
    

1. 
   
2. 
   
3. ----------
4. FRGI Fiesta Restaurant Group 1.27B
5. PBPB Potbelly Corp 816.56M
6. RUTH Ruth's Hospitality Group 465.67M
7. JMBA Jamba, Inc. 246.43M
8. FRSH Papa Murphy's  171.87M
9. KONA Kona Grill, Inc. 148.11M
10. BOBS Brazil Fast Food  132.27M
11. PZZI Pizza Inn, Inc. 74.55M
12. NROM Noble Roman's, Inc. 30.14M
13. HOTR Chanticleer Holdings  18.03M
14. MRFD Morgan's Foods, Inc. 12.91M
15. BBQ  BBQ Holdings  27.475M; owner of Famous Dave's of America restaurants

Delisted:

1. FAT   Fat Brands  83.383M; owner of Fatburger, Twin Peaks, Fazoli's and Ponderosa/Bonanza; acquired Johnny Rockets. (8/20).  Following a rapid acquisition spree ($900 million+ from 2020–2021) that left the company with nearly $1.5 billion in debt, FAT Brands filed for bankruptcy in January 2026.  Nasdaq delisting on February 4, 26.
2. COSI  Cosi Inc; Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy and was delisted from the Nasdaq Stock Market. (Sept 2016)

Acquisitions:

++ DNKN Dunkin Brands 5.622B

1. DENN Denny's  649.832M; Jan 2026: acquired by TriArtisan Capital Advisors, Treville Capital Group, and Yadav Enterprises at $6.25 per share, or approximately $620 million, a 52% premium compared to Denny’s closing stock price on Nov. 3, when the deal was announced.  Founded in 1954 as Danny’s Donuts, Denny's has about 1,300 locations nationwide.
2. CHUY Chuy's Holdings  383.953M; acquired by Darden Restaurants, Inc. (the parent company of brands like Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, etc.) for $605 million (July 17, 2024)
3. TAST Carrols Restaurant Group   382.248M;  Carrols  (formerly NASDAQ: TAST) was acquired by Restaurant Brands International (NYSE:$QSR), the parent company of Burger King, Popeyes, Tim Hortons, and Firehouse Subs, in May 2024,  for approx. $1 billion.  Prior to this, Carrols was the largest independent Burger King franchisee in the U.S., operating over 1,000 Burger King locations and some Popeyes restaurants.
4. TACO Del Taco Restaurants acquired by Jack in the Box (JACK) for $12.51/share or approx. $575 million. (Dec 6, 2021)
5. DAVE  Famous Dave's of America is now BBQ Holdings (BBQ) (2019)
6. BAGR Diversified Restaurant Holdings ; acquired by ICV Partners. (2019)
7. DFRG Del Frisco's Restaurant Group acquired by private equity group L Catterton. (June 2019)
8. SONC Sonic Corporation; acquired by privately-held Inspire Brands for $2.3 billion (Sept 2018). The company also owns Arby's, Buffalo Wild Wings, Jimmy John's, and Rusty Taco restaurant chains.
9. BBRG  Bravo Brio Restaurant Group; sold to Spice Private Equity Ltd. and renamed FoodFirst Global Restaurants. (May 2018)
10. BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings; acquired by privately-held Inspire Brands (Nov 2017). The company also owns Arby's, Sonic Drive-In, Jimmy John's, and Rusty Taco restaurant chains.
11. RT Ruby Tuesday; privately-held; acquired by NRD Capital (Oct 2017).
12. IRG Ignite Restaurant Group (operator of Joe's Crab Shack and Brick House Tavern & Tap) acquired by Kelly Cos., a San Diego-based private equity firm for $50 million. (Jun 7, 2017)
13. PNRA Panera Bread acquired by JAB Holding for $7.5 bln. (Apr 2017)
14. PLKI  Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen acquired by Restaurant Brands (QSR) for $79.00/share. (Feb 2017)
15. BKW Burger King Worldwide is now part of Restaurant Brands Int'l (NYSE:QSR)
16. KKD  Krispy Kreme  acquired by JAB Beech for $1.35B (May 9, 2016)
17. BAGL Einstein Noah Restaurant Group --> 9/14 : BAGL acquired by JAB Holding Co., an affiliate of the private-equity firm Joh. A. Benckiser Group, for $374M. (Also bought Caribou for $340 Million in 12/12, and Peet's Coffee for $1 billion in 10/12)

finviz charts (by ave 3-month vol):   http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=MCD,YUM,CMG,BKW,DRI,DPZ,WEN,BLMN,BWLD,CBRL,CAKE,ARCO,JACK,TXRH,FRGI,RRGB,SONC,PBPB,BJRI,DENN,CHUY,DFRG,RUTH,RT,BBRG,IRG,TAST,KONA,DAVE,BAGR,BOBS,PZZI,COSI,NROM,HOTR,MRFD,GTIM,PNRA,KKD,DNKN,FRSH,JMBA&ta=0&o=-averagevolume

                         

Fast food and fast casual restaurants

by market cap

Company name Mkt Cap▼

1. MCD McDonald's 97.51B
2. YUM Yum! Brands, Inc. 32.21B
3. CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill 16.45B
4. BKW Burger King Worldwide 7.12B
5. DRI Darden Restaurants 6.91B
6. DNKN Dunkin Brands 4.98B
7. PNRA Panera Bread 4.86B
8. DPZ Domino's Pizza, Inc. 3.79B
9. WEN The Wendy's Co 3.33B
10. BLMN Bloomin' Brands Inc 3.11B
11. BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings 2.73B
12. CBRL Cracker Barrel Old Country Store 2.68B
13. CAKE The Cheesecake Factory 2.51B
14. ARCO Arcos Dorados 2.50B
15. JACK Jack in the Box Inc. 1.94B
16. TXRH Texas Roadhouse Inc 1.94B
17. KKD Krispy Kreme Doughnuts 1.67B
18. FRGI Fiesta Restaurant Group 1.27B
19. RRGB Red Robin Gourmet Burgers 1.12B
20. SONC Sonic Corporation 1.09B
21. PBPB Potbelly Corp 816.56M
22. BJRI BJ's Restaurants 794.89M
23. DENN Denny's Corporation 625.55M
24. CHUY Chuy's Holdings Inc 541.55M
25. DFRG Del Frisco's Restaurant Group 507.97M
26. RUTH Ruth's Hospitality Group 465.67M
27. RT Ruby Tuesday, Inc. 403.91M
28. BBRG Bravo Brio Restaurant Group 303.09M
29. IRG Ignite Restaurant Group 301.65M
30. JMBA Jamba, Inc. 246.43M
31. FRSH Papa Murphy's  171.87M
32. TAST Carrols Restaurant Group150.47M
33. KONA Kona Grill, Inc. 148.11M
34. DAVE Famous Dave's of America 146.49M
35. BAGR Diversified Restaurant Holdings 146.43M
36. BOBS Brazil Fast Food 132.27M
37. PZZI Pizza Inn, Inc. 74.55M
38. COSI Cosi Inc 30.77M
39. NROM Noble Roman's, Inc. 30.14M
40. HOTR Chanticleer Holdings 18.03M
41. MRFD Morgan's Foods, Inc. 12.91M
42. GTIM Good Times Restaurants 12.22M
43. BAGL Einstein Noah Restaurant Group --> 9/14 : BAGL acquired by JAB Holding Co., an affiliate of the private-equity firm Joh. A. Benckiser Group, for $374M. (Also bought Caribou for $340 Million in 12/12, and Peet's Coffee for $1 billion in 10/12)

finviz charts (by ave 3-month vol):   http://finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=211&t=MCD,YUM,CMG,BKW,DRI,DPZ,WEN,BLMN,BWLD,CBRL,CAKE,ARCO,JACK,TXRH,FRGI,RRGB,SONC,PBPB,BJRI,DENN,CHUY,DFRG,RUTH,RT,BBRG,IRG,TAST,KONA,DAVE,BAGR,BOBS,PZZI,COSI,NROM,HOTR,MRFD,GTIM,PNRA,KKD,DNKN,FRSH,JMBA&ta=0&o=-averagevolume

consumer preferences

Aug 2014:  Burger King after takeover of Canadian coffee-and-doughnut chain Tim Horton

PNRA vs CMG - 2-year chart (click for live chart)