The autonomous vehicle (AV) industry is accelerating from experimental concept to commercial reality, with deployments expanding across the US, China, and new international markets including parts of Europe and the Middle East.
Total AV industry revenue—spanning hardware, software, and services—could reach approximately $2 trillion in 2035. Key projections include:
- The global robotaxi market is forecast to reach roughly $415 billion in 2035, with the US portion alone estimated at $48 billion.
- The global AV trucking market could hit $560 billion in 2035, with AV trucks expected to become cheaper per mile than human-driven trucks in 2028 in the US.
- The commercial AV robotaxi fleet worldwide is projected to surge from roughly 7,000 vehicles last year to about 6 million in 2035.
- Revenue directly tied to artificial intelligence (such as virtual driver technology and consumer autonomy subscriptions) is estimated to rise to roughly $300 billion in 2035.
Costs are expected to fall meaningfully. The all-in cost per mile (excluding corporate operating expenses) for an AV truck in the US is projected to drop from approximately $8.56 in 2025 to about $2.03 in 2035, while the comparable cost for a human-driven truck is expected to rise from $2.55 to $2.84 over the same period.
On the robotaxi side, total cost per mile could fall below $1 in the US by 2035 for an operator that builds and runs its own fleet, driven by declining vehicle costs, lower insurance premiums, and improved remote supervision ratios.
The US has roughly 300 million vehicles in operation. With an estimated 3 million AVs on US roads in 2035, the near-term impact on fleet size appears negligible.
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