Tuesday, February 22, 2022

Sanctions and the Russian ruble

It's been a busy few days dominated by escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and sanctions imposed by the United States, U.K. and EU. Previous sanctions came in response to the annexation of Crimea, and there's no better way to visualize their impact than through the Ruble.
The dollar versus the ruble dating back to 2008, which now sits at the historically significant 80 level.

The weakness in the ruble really began in 2008, partially from the onset of the Great Financial Crisis, but also from Russia's bid to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, breakaway territories of Georgia with historical ties. After the global economy recovered from the recession, the ruble never returned to levels seen before the Georgia conflict. It weakened more substantially in 2014 in the bid to annex Crimea alongside declining oil prices, thanks to booming production from the United States' shale players. Brent crude dropped to as low as $27 per barrel in 2016.

In the years that followed, oil prices recovered, but the Ruble never did -- illustrating the damage of sanctions. Time and time again, the 80 level has served as support for the Russian currency and hasn't weakened further. Now, it stands there again as Russia faces harsher and stronger penalties.

No comments:

Post a Comment