Tuesday, February 25, 2020

Coronavirus news impacting the financial markets

    Fear of the COVID-19 disease infecting the U.S. is accelerating. The illness derived from the novel coronavirus, SARS-COV-2, which originated in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 is starting to affect global trade and travel and taking a bite out of confidence about earnings and economic growth.   (latest numbers from Johns Hopkins, and here) (death rate by country)
  • 10/28/20: Fauci says vaccine will not be available till Jan 2021 at the earliest https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-28/covid-19-vaccine-won-t-be-available-until-january-fauci-says
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  • Mon 8/31/20: Novavax announced it’s reached an agreement with Canada to supply 76 million doses of its experimental coronavirus vaccine.
  • Fri 8/28/20: Moderna (MRNA) confirms discussions to supply 40 mln doses of mRNA COVID-19 vaccine with Japan. The vaccine would be supplied by Moderna and distributed in Japan by Takeda Pharmaceutical (TAK) beginning in the first half of 2021.
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  • Sun 8/23/20: Russia expects to produce between 1.5 million and 2 million doses per month of its potential COVID-19 vaccine by the year end, gradually ramping up production to 6 million doses a month, the RIA news agency cited industry minister Denis Manturov.
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  • Tue 8/18/20: Coronavirus cases worldwide have reached 22.29 million. Covid-19 deaths are above 783,000. Coronavirus cases in the U.S. are at 5.65 million, with deaths topping 175,000.
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  • Sun 6/14/20: Latest count of confirmed cases: World: 7,887,221; U.S.: 2,093,335; Brazil: 867,624; Russia: 528,267; India: 320,922; Britain: 297,342; Spain: 243,928; Italy: 236,989; Peru: 229,736; France: 194,153; Germany: 187,518; (Data: Johns Hopkins University)
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  • Fri 4/17/20, USA: Moderna (MRNA) will receive up to $483 million in federal funding for its coronavirus vaccine. The Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, or BARDA — under the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services — will fund the development of Moderna's coronavirus vaccine, said late Thursday. Moderna's drug was the first experimental coronavirus vaccine to begin clinical testing. The Phase 1 study has finished enrolling 45 volunteers ages 18-55. The National Institutes of Health, which is running the test, is now enrolling older volunteers into the study.
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  • Tue 3/31/20, USA: Over 270 million people in the United States in at least 33 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico were under instructions to stay home or "shelter in place," and to avoid any non-essential travel.
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  • Thur 3/26/20, Italy: 712 people died of the illness in the last 24 hours, pushing the total tally to 8,215, well over double that seen in anywhere else in the world, while new infections rose by 6,153 to 80,539.
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  • Tue 3/24/20, USA has at least 52,145 confirmed cases, and the total death toll stands at 677, according to Johns Hopkins University. 8,931 new cases and 144 new death are added within 24 hours.
  • Tue 3/24/20, Thailand announces state of emergency.
  • Tue 3/24/20, Singapore closes bars, theaters.
  • Tue 3/24/20, Italy: The death toll from an outbreak of coronavirus in has grown by 743 to 6,820, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said on Tuesday, reversing a decline in fatalities seen over the last two days.
  • Tue 3/24/20, India ordered a 21-day lockdown of its 1.3 billion people
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  • Mon 3/23/20, USA: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Monday reported 33,453 cases of coronavirus, an increase of 18,185 cases from its previous count, and said the death toll had risen by 199 to 400.
  • Mon 3/23/20, Italy: The death toll has grown by 602 to 6,078, the head of the Civil Protection Agency said on Monday, an 11% increase but the smallest rise in numerical terms since Thursday, suggesting a clear downward trend.
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  • Sat 3/14 Spanish PM's wife has tested positive for coronavirus.
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  • Thur 3/5/20: India's health minister has announced that 17 out of 21 Italian tourists have tested positive for the coronavirus. The group entered India before the country began screening passengers from Italy. Their Indian tour bus driver was also found to be infected.
  • Thur 3/5/20:  Poland confirms first case.  Poland's Health Minister Lukasz Szumowski said the patient is in hospital in Zielona Gora, western Poland, adding that he is in good condition.
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  • Wed 3/4/20; Italy: Infections surged to more 3,000, while deaths shot up to 107, from 79 yesterday. The country has the most reported cases outside China and South Korea.  Italy closes all its schools. The country ordered all schools — from day care centers to universities — to shut down until at least March 15 as the outbreak there grew rapidly. 
  • Wed 3/4/20;  France: The second-hardest-hit European country has recorded nearly 300 cases. The French health minister has advised against greeting with cheek kisses, and the Louvre reopened, but with new rules for dealing with visitors.
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  • Tue 3/3/20: Inovio Pharmaceuticals (INO) announced an accelerated timeline until the end of 2020 for developing its DNA vaccine INO-4800 to address COVID-19. This includes ongoing preclinical studies and large-scale manufacturing plans in March of this year, human clinical trials in the US, China, and South Korea in April, presentation and publication of these human trials this autumn, and production of vaccine at the end of 2020.
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  • Sun 3/1/20:  58 countries outside China reported 7,196 cases of coronavirus, including 104 deaths, as of 10 am (CET) on March 1, according to the World Health Organization.
  • Sat 2/29/20: Azerbaijan said it had closed its border with Iran for two weeks to prevent the spread of coronavirus, after the death toll in Iran rose to 43, the highest number outside of China.
  • Sat 2/29/20: Two more people in the Netherlands have been diagnosed with the coronavirus, increasing the total number of the cases to six, according to health agency RIVM. The wife and daughter of the country's first coronavirus patient tested positive, RIVM said.
  • Sat 2/29/20: South Korea report its highest daily number of confirmed cases yet, 813, bringing the country's total to 3,150 with 17 deaths. Iran also reported the number of its cases had jumped 388 cases to 593 in 24 hours, with the death toll reaching 43.  
  • Sat 2/29/20:  Qatar confirmed the first case in the country. 
  • Fri 2/28/20: Lithuania and Wales reported their first coronavirus cases, with Netherlands and Georgia reporting their second.
  • Thur 2/27/20, USA:  The administration is considering invoking the Defense Production Act which would grant President Donald Trump the power to expand industrial production of key materials or products for national security. 
  • Thur 2/27/20, Italy has seen a spike in infections which jumped to 650, while 3 more people died with the tally of dead people now at 17.
  • Thur 2/27/20, USA: California is currently monitoring at least 8,400 people for coronavirus, a day after health officials confirmed the first possible community transmission of the virus in a Solano County resident - NBC News
  • Thur 2/27/20: Israeli researchers at MIGAL claim they have developed a vaccine against the #coronavirus for poultry and are only 3 months away from testing a vaccine on humans. (article)
  • Thur 2/27/20, Iran: 26 deaths
  • Thur 2/27/20: Denmark, Romania, Estonia, the Netherlands confirm 1st cases
  • Thur 2/27/20, Japan: Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is calling for all schools across the country to close for 1 month as the government looks to contain the coronavirus outbreak within the nation.
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  • Mortality rate: the average mortality rate is estimated to be in the range of 1 to 3 percent  A summary of a report on over 72,000 COVID-19 cases by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention in the journal JAMA on Monday showed the case fatality rate was 2.3 percent of average, spiking to 80 percent in patients aged between 70 to 79-years-old, and dropping to 14.8 percent in those aged 80 and above.
  • On Wednesday, NBC News reported the mortality rate in Iran—which has seen a spike in cases since it reported its first case last week—was around 14 percent. At the same time, as only 60 COVID-19 cases have been reported in the U.S. and no one has died, it isn't currently appropriate to estimate a mortality rate for the U.S.
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  • Wed 2/26/20, Germany: Health Minister Jens Spahn on coronavirus outbreak in Germany: "We are at the beginning of a coronavirus epidemic in Germany".
  • Wed 2/26/20: North Macedonia's Health Ministry confirmed the country's first coronavirus case.
  • Wed 2/26/20: First confirmed case in Karachi, Pakistan.
  • Wed 2/26/20, USA: The CDC recommends avoiding all nonessential travel to South Korea.
  • Wed 2/26/20, USA: The CDC says there is the first case of coronavirus in a person (in Northern California) who did not recently return from a foreign country or have contact with a confirmed case.
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  • Tue 2/25/20, London: Chevron Corp. asked traders and other staff at its Canary Wharf office in London to work from home as a precaution after an employee was tested for the coronavirus.
  • Tue 2/25/20: Germany reports a new case of COVID-19, someone who was recently in Italy. This brings the total cases to 17.
  • Tue 2/25/20, Tokyo Summer Olympics: Senior members of the International Olympic Committee raised the possibility Tuesday of cancellation or postponement of the Tokyo Games if the coronavirus outbreak wasn’t contained in the next three months.
  • Tue 2/25/20, USA:  Federal health officials issued a blunt message Tuesday: Americans need to start preparing now for the possibility that more aggressive, disruptive measures might be needed to stop the spread of the new coronavirus in the U.S. "It's not so much a question of if this will happen anymore, but more really a question of when it will happen — and how many people in this country will have severe illness," Dr. Nancy Messonnier of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention told reporters during a briefing.
  • Tue 2/25/20, USA: There are now 53 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. as more people who returned from the Diamond Princess cruise ship tested positive for the virus, according to a new update from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. That's a total of 39 U.S. nationals who had been on the Diamond Princess who have been infected by the virus. At least 695 people who were on the ship, which is operated by Carnival Corp. CCL, -4.29% and docked at a port in Yokohama, Japan, have been sickened by COVID-19 and three people have died.  
  • Tue 2/25/20, Iran:  Iranian health officials said the number of confirmed cases in the country has risen to 95, with 15 confirmed deaths. 
  • Tue 2/25/20: Saudi Arabia has advised citizens and residents to avoid travelling to Italy and Japan amid fears of a coronavirus outbreak, state-owned Al Arabiya TV has reported. 
  • Tue 2/25/20: Croatia has confirmed its first case of coronavirus infection in a patient hospitalised in the capital Zagreb, Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic has said. Health Minister Vili Beros said that the patient had stayed in Milan from February 19 to 21.
  • Tue 2/25/20: Austria has confirmed its first two cases of coronavirus. The infected individuals are two Italians who live in the province and were probably infected in Italy's Lombardy region, Tyrol governor Guenther Platter was quoted as saying by local media.
  • Tue 2/25/20: Thailand confirmed two new cases of the coronavirus, taking its total number of infections to 37, health officials said.
  • Tue 2/25/20: Bahrain has identified six more new cases of coronavirus all coming from Iran, bringing the total number in the kingdom to 23, the state news agency BNA reported, citing the health ministry.
  • Tue 2/25/20, Italy:  A planned three-week shoot in Italy for Tom Cruise's new "Mission: Impossible" film has been postponed due to the coronavirus outbreak, movie studio Paramount Pictures said. Filming was due to have started on Monday in Venice, where the final two days of the lagoon city's annual Carnival festival was canceled on Sunday.
  • Tue 2/25/20, Italy: At least 11 people have died as the coronavirus continues to spread in Italy's northern region, according to the head of the country's Civil Protection Department, Angelo Borrelli. With at least 322 cases, Italy is the worst-hit European country and there are fears the outbreak could affect its neighbours.
  • Tue 2/25/20: In Spain, an Italian doctor at a hotel in Tenerife was confirmed to have the virus - that hotel is now on lockdown. And in the UK, three schools have closed after students returned from skiing trips.
  • Tue 2/25/20, Switzerland: First reported case of coronavirus in Switzerland. A 70-year-old man tested positive for the coronavirus in Switzerland's southern canton of Ticino, on the border with Italy. "The infected person was in Italy about ten days ago and participated in an event near Milan," the Swiss health ministry said in a statement.  (ETF: $EWL)
  • Tue 2/25/20, Asia: Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly lower note. The number of reported coronavirus cases in China climbed above 77,500 with deaths exceeding 2,600. Meanwhile, South Korea's case count approached 1,000. An official from the People's Bank of China said that the coronavirus will impact the ability of firms to repay bonds, but the overall impact on the market is not expected to be "huge."
  • Mon 2/24/20: The stock market sold off more than 3% following a surge in coronavirus cases outside China, including South Korea, Italy, and Iran. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-3.6%), S&P 500 (-3.4%), and Russell 2000 (-3.0%) each turned negative for the year, while the Nasdaq Composite (-3.7%) gave up most of its monthly gains.  Governments took swift action to help contain the outbreak, such as closing public spaces, but weakness in foreign equity markets reflected concerns about the possibility of a global pandemic. South Korea's Kospi fell 3.9%, and Italy's MIB fell 5.4%. China's Shanghai Composite declined just 0.3% amid reports that the rate of new coronavirus cases may have peaked in the region. 
  • January 31: the number of confirmed cases in China jumped to 9,809. Russia, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom confirmed their first cases of the virus.
  • The WHO said on January 23 that the outbreak did not yet constitute a public emergency of international concern and there was "no evidence" of the virus spreading between humans outside of China.
  • January 20:  China reported a third death and more than 200 infections, with cases also reported outside Hubei province including in the capital Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen.  Meanwhile, a Chinese expert on infectious diseases confirmed human-to-human transmission to state broadcaster CCTV, raising fears of a major outbreak as millions travelled for the Lunar New Year holiday.
  • On January 17: as a second death was reported in Wuhan, health authorities in the US announced that three airports would start screening passengers arriving from the city. Authorities in the United States, Nepal, France, Australia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Korea, Vietnam and Taiwan confirmed cases over the following days.
  • January 16:  Japan's health ministry reported a confirmed case in a man who had also visited Wuhan.
  • January 13:  the WHO reported a case in Thailand, the first outside of China, in a woman who had arrived from Wuhan.
  • January 11, 20: China announced its first death from the virus, a 61-year-old man who had purchased goods from the seafood market. Treatment did not improve his symptoms after he was admitted to hospital and he died of heart failure on the evening of January 9.
  • January 7, 20: Officials announced they had identified a new virus, according to the WHO. The novel virus was named 2019-nCoV and was identified as belonging to the coronavirus family, which includes SARS and the common cold.
  • January 5, 20: Chinese officials ruled out the possibility that this was a recurrence of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) virus - an illness that originated in China and killed more than 770 people worldwide in 2002-2003.
  • December 31, 19: China alerted WHO to several cases of unusual pneumonia in Wuhan, a port city of 11 million people in the central Hubei province. The virus was unknown. Several of those infected worked at the city's Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, which was shut down on January 1.
Rapid acceleration of coronavirus cases in U.S.
Jan. 21, 2020: 1
Jan. 31: 7
Feb. 10: 13
Feb. 20: 27
Feb. 29: 70
Mar. 10: 1,018
Mar. 20: 17,935
Mar. 24: 53,470 (698 deaths)
May 1: 1,103,927  (64,460 deaths)
June 14: 2,162,144 (117,853 deaths)
(Sources: state and local health agencies, hospitals and C.D.C., compiled by Johns Hopkins Univ.)
Aug 18: 5.65 million (175,000 deaths)

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