Monday, July 8, 2019

Looking at U.S. recession's odds causes some to see red

Anyone who “can’t see the recession” coming to the U.S. isn’t looking at a key indicator, according to David Rosenberg, Gluskin Sheff & Associates Inc.’s chief economist and strategist. Rosenberg featured a gauge compiled by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York in a Twitter post Monday.

The monthly indicator is based on the gap between yields on three-month Treasury bills and 10-year notes, and shows recession probabilities over 12 months. The latest reading was 32.9%, a 12-year high. Rosenberg’s post followed a report last week by Morgan Stanley Wealth Management that cited the New York Fed’s indicator.

** 3 years later **

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