Gold has risen more than 40% in 2025 and is on pace for its third straight year of double-digits gains.
Gold is predicted to rise to $4,000 per troy ounce by the middle of next year, driven by strong structural demand from central banks and easing from the US Federal Reserve (which supports demand for gold from exchange-traded funds).
Buyers of gold fall into two broad groups, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Conviction buyers tend to purchase gold consistently, regardless of the price, based on their view on the economy or to hedge risk. These include central banks, ETFs, and speculators. Their thesis-driven flows set the price direction.
As a rule of thumb, every 100 tonnes of net purchases by these conviction buyers corresponds to a 1.7% rise in the gold price.
By contrast, opportunistic buyers such as households in emerging markets step in when they believe the price is right. They may provide a floor under prices on the way down and resistance on the way up.
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