Wednesday, March 13, 2019

Will U.S. bond yields climb? Not if stocks are any guide

Some of the most interest-rate-sensitive U.S. stocks are signaling that bond yields won’t move up any time soon, according to Renaissance Macro Research LLC. The firm cited a chart created by Michael Guttag, a managing director, in a Twitter post Tuesday. Guttag compared a ratio of bank and utility stocks within the S&P 1500 Composite Index -- consisting of all the shares in the S&P 500, MidCap 400 and SmallCap 600 indexes -- with the yield on 10-year Treasury notes. The ratio peaked in March of last year and then dropped 28 percent through Tuesday. “We’re not banking on higher yields,” Renaissance wrote.

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