Energy buys -- March 2015

On the MLP front, the Alerian MPL Index (AMZ) recently held support for a third time at the 410 level, but remains below most of its declining moving averages. Buys: Alon USA Partners (ticker: ALDW), Buckeye Partners ( BPL ), Capital Product Partners ( CPLP ), Enbridge ( ENB ), Energy Transfer Equity ( ETE ), Kinder Morgan ( KMI ), Plains GP Holdings ( PAGP ) and SemGroup ( SEMG ). Sells: CenterPoint Energy ( CNP ), Natural Resource Partners ( NRP ), SeaDrill Partners ( SDLP ) and Teekay Offshore Partners ( TOO ).

1) Refiners: The best group within energy, and it has been that way for a while. We see no reason to suggest that is ending.

Buy: Valero Energy ( VLO ). While Tesoro ( TSO ) has been the clear winner in the refiner space of late (up 65% from October lows), Valero looks like a better risk-reward to us here. Relative strength versus Energy is in a firm uptrend and recently broke to new highs.

Sell: HollyFrontier ( HFC ). HollyFrontier remains below a declining 200 displaced moving average (DMA), and relative strength has been unable to break above its 2014 highs.

2) Integrated Oils: We rank this behind refiners as the relative trend versus Energy is choppy, but above a rising 200 DMA.

Buy: BP ( BP ). Most of the integrated-oil names are in absolute downtrends, but BP has been showing relative strength to the group. Its relative line recently broke out of a medium-term base, retested and is now moving higher.

Sell: ExxonMobil ( XOM ). The stock recently broke below multimonth support at the $86 level, and has been holding below that support. Relative strength is still above its 2014 lows, but has recently broken its uptrend line from last fall.

3) Oil Services: In a clear downtrend on an absolute and relative basis. While it has been weaker than exploration and production (E&P), it looks slightly less vulnerable to us giving it the slight edge.

Buy: Baker Hughes ( BHI ). One of the few oil-services names that has made new relative highs versus the energy sector in the last few months. Look for it to break above its 200 DMA for the next leg higher.

Sell: SeaDrill. A clear downtrend on an absolute and relative basis. While the absolute chart has stabilized somewhat, it looks vulnerable to breaking to fresh lows below $8.58.

4) Exploration and Production: Recently broke its uptrend line versus Energy, and looks vulnerable to another down-leg.

Buy: Cimarex Energy ( XEC ). Trying to carve out an inverse head and should bottom on the absolute chart, while the relative chart holds above a medium-term base.

Sell: Oasis Petroleum ( OAS ). A clear downtrend on an absolute and relative basis. While the absolute chart has stabilized somewhat, it looks vulnerable to breaking to fresh lows below $12.