Tuesday, November 22, 2022

S&P 500 -- YTD performance

 Worst stocks in the S&P 500 on a percentage basis this year

CompanyTicker% ch.Sector
Generac Holdings(GNRC)-70.9%Industrials
Align Technology(ALGN)-70.8Health Care
SVB Financial(SIVB)-68.3Financials
Catalent(CTLT)-67.3Health Care
Meta Platforms(META)-67.3Communication Services
Match Group(MTCH)-64.5Communication Services
Signature Bank(SBNY)-59.2Financials
Stanley Black & Decker(SWK)-57.2Industrials
Zebra Technologies(ZBRA)-56.8Information Technology
PayPal Holdings(PYPL)-57.2Information Technology
V.F.(VFC)-55.8Consumer Discretionary
Warner Bros. Discovery(WBD)-55.1Communication Services
Sources: S&P Global Market Intelligence, IBD

Tuesday, November 8, 2022

Energy vs. Technology 2020-2022

Energy sector (blue) is decisively outperforming Tech (orange).
Performance spread now at +23%


Wednesday, October 12, 2022

Jamie Dimon: don’t be surprised if the S&P 500 loses another one-fifth of its value

 (Bloomberg) -- Jamie Dimon says don’t be surprised if the S&P 500 loses another one-fifth of its value. While such a plunge would fray trader nerves and stress retirement accounts, history shows it wouldn’t require any major departures from past precedents to occur.

Judged by valuation and its impact on long-term returns, the JPMorgan Chase chief executive officer’s “easy 20%” tumble, mentioned in a CNBC interview yesterday, would result in a bear market that is in many regards normal. A decline roughly to 2,900 on the S&P 500 would leave the gauge 39% below its January high, a notable collapse but one that pales next to both the dot-com crash and global financial crisis.

The price implied in Dimon’s scenario is roughly the index’s peak from 2018, the year when President Donald Trump’s corporate tax cuts took effect and an equity selloff forced the Federal Reserve to end rate hikes. Rolling back the gains since then would leave investors with nothing over four years, a relatively long fallow period. But, given the force of the bull market that raged before then, it would cut annualized gains over the past decade only to about 7%, in line with the long-term average.

Tuesday, October 11, 2022

Credit Suisse May Face $8 Billion Capital Shortfall in 2024

(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG faces a capital shortfall of as much as 8 billion Swiss francs ($8 billion) in 2024, analysts at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. estimate, underscoring the challenges for the troubled lender as it nears what’s likely to be a deep restructuring.


At the very least, the Zurich-based firm is facing a hole of 4 billion francs, given the need to restructure the investment banking operations at a time of “minimal” capital generation, analysts led by Chris Hallam wrote. That means it would be “prudent” for the lender to raise capital.

“Credit Suisse continues to face cyclical and structural challenges,” the analysts wrote in a note, maintaining a sell recommendation on the stock.

The firm is exploring radical cuts to its volatile investment bank, including spinning off large parts and hiving off its securitized products group, as Chief Executive Officer Ulrich Koerner seeks to put an end to years of scandals and losses. Yet with a key question -- how to pay for it -- unanswered roughly two weeks before he’s due to present his plan, speculation about the lender’s financial strength has sent its shares on a rollercoaster ride.

The stock rose as much as 2% on Tuesday and was trading up 0.5% as of 1:03 p.m. local time.

While raising capital is one option under consideration, Credit Suisse executives would strongly prefer not to issue equity with the share price near record lows, Bloomberg News previously reported.

Sunday, October 9, 2022

Chinese stocks

(by market cap)                        
Ticker   Company name Mkt Cap
  1. BABA   Alibaba   219.48B; e-commerce
  2. PDD  Pinduoduo  80.27B
  3. JD   JD.com  79.34B
  4. NTES  NetEase  51.71B
  5. BIDU   Baidu  42.08B
  6. NIO   Nio   23.83B; electric vehicles
  7. YUMC   Yum China Holdings  20.46B; restaurants
  8. BEKE  KE Holdings 19.53B; real estate services
  9. ZTO   ZTO Express 19.32B; Freight & Logistics
  10. LI  Li Auto  18.789B; electric vehicles
  11. TCOM  Trip.com  18.77B; travel services
  12. ZNH   China Southern Airlines 14.51B; airlines
  13. CEA  China Eastern Airlines   11.30B; airlines
  14. HTHT  H World Group  11.28B; lodging
  15. XPEV   Xpeng Motors  8.82B; electric vehicles
  16. BZ   Kanzhun   7.24B;   Staffing & Employment Services
  17. TME  Tencent Music Entertainment  7.18B; online music entertainment platform
  18. YMM   Full Truck Alliance  7.15B; digital freight platform
  19. BILI  Bilibili  5.92B; electronic gaming
  20. FUTU  Futu Holdings  5.47B; online brokerage services; Hong Kong
  21. VIPS  Vipshop  5.40B
  22. LU  Lufax Holding  5.12B; credit services
  23. EDU  New Oriental Education  4.49B; for-profit education
  24. WB  Weibo  3.93B; social media platform
  25. ATHM  Autohome  3.84B; online destination for automobile consumers
  26. DQ  Daqo New Energy  3.774B; solar power
  27. ZLAB  Zai Lab   3.30B; biotech
  28. GDS   GDS Holdings  3.28B; data-center operator
  29. TAL  TAL Education 3.24B; for-profit education
  30. CD  Chindata Group   2.91B; data centers
  31. JKS  JinkoSolar  2.55B; solar power
  32. QFIN  360 DigiTech  2.296B; credit services
  33. MNSO  MINISO Group  1.84B; retail
  34. IQ  iQIYI, Inc.  2.11B; online entertainment services; subsidiary of Baidu
  35. RLX   RLX Technology  1.46B; e-vapor company
  36. DADA   Dada Nexus  1.31B; retail
  37. FINV  FinVolution Group  1.31B; credit services
  38. NOAH  Noah Holdings  1.09B; asset management
  39. HOLI  Hollysys Automation Technologies   1.07B; automation control systems
  40. MOMO  Hello Group Inc. 986.54M; online entertainment services
  41. NAAS  NaaS Technology  788.11M; electric vehicle (EV) charging services
  42. DDL  Dingdong 778.85M; e-commerce
  43. VNET  VNET Group 759.36M; data centers
  44. RENN  Renren  749.29M; software—application
  45. ZH  Zhihu  699.32M; online content company
  46. YSG  Yatsen  639.11M; beauty products maker
  47. SOHU  Sohu.com  555.29M; mobile gaming
  48. TUYA  Tuya Inc.   552.33M; Internet of Things (IoT) cloud platform
  49. CAN  Canaan   549.84M; bitcoin mining equipment maker
  50. DAO  Youdao  534.11M; search engine released by NetEase
  51. HUYA   HUYA Inc.  531.07M; mobile gaming
  52. RERE  ATRenew  519.16M; ecommerce
  53. KC  Kingsoft Cloud  512.88M; cloud services
  54. TIGR  Up Fintech  505.11M; online brokerage services
  55. API  Agora  395.12M; software tools
  56. GOTU  Gaotu Techedu 303.354M; for-profit education

Others
  • riding-hailing outfit Didi Global (DIDI), 

China Stock Investing Via ETFs
KraneShares CSI China Internet ETF (KWEB) tracks major Chinese internet companies. Many Chinese stock holdings in the KWEB ETF are U.S. listed or traded, such as Alibaba stock, JD.com, Tencent, Pinduoduo and Bilibili, but KWEB also holds companies listed on Chinese markets. Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull (YINN) is a three-times-leveraged ETF of the 50 largest companies listed in Hong Kong, including Alibaba, JD.com and Tencent stock, but its biggest weights are in financials. (The Direxion Daily FTSE China Bear (YANN) is a three-times-leveraged ETF shorting Hong Kong's biggest companies.) 


Other OTC:
  • TCEHY  Tencent  330.16B; technology and entertainment conglomerate
  • BYDDF  BYD Co.  91.75B; electric vehicles

Saturday, October 1, 2022

High-dividend ETFs

Dividend ETFs offer instant diversification and potential income. 

Symbol

ETF name

Annual dividend yield

XLE

Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund

3.75%

SCHD

Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF

2.83%

VYM

Vanguard High Dividend Yield Index ETF

2.69%

VXUS

Vanguard Total International Stock ETF

2.46%

VEA

Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF

2.41%

EFA

iShares MSCI EAFE ETF

2.22%

IEFA

iShares Core MSCI EAFE ETF

2.21%

VWO

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF

2.17%

VTV

Vanguard Value ETF

2.10%

IEMG

iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

1.88%

IWD

iShares Russell 1000 Value ETF

1.57%

VIG

Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF

1.53%

XLV

Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund

1.36%

IVV

iShares Core S&P 500 ETF

1.25%

VOO

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF

1.24%

VTI

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF

1.19%

ITOT

iShares Core S&P Total U.S. Stock Market ETF

1.17%

VO

Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF

1.12%

VB

Vanguard Small Cap ETF

1.10%

IJR

iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF

1.06%

IJH

iShares Core S&P Mid-Cap ETF

1.05%

IWM

iShares Russell 2000 ETF

0.84%

VGT

Vanguard Information Technology ETF

0.63%

IWF

iShares Russell 1000 Growth ETF

0.50%

VUG

Vanguard Growth ETF

0.49%

Data current as of Nov. 1, 2022