Wednesday, December 29, 2021

Bitcoin loses its momentum

 After peaking in late 2017, Bitcoin has largely traded sideways. 
Bitcoin against the dollar on a logarithmic scale over the past five years, measuring the acceleration of the cryptocurrency’s move while accounting for its volatility. 
Volatility tied to the presidential election gave Bitcoin a boost, which then sped up as traders embraced risk after the first Covid vaccine arrived in early November 2020. 
For a while, Bitcoin showed a positive correlation with the S&P 500 Index, emerging-market securities and even commodities as a measure of inflation. 
But then, after putting up a 516% return in about six months, its momentum plateaued. In recent months, the cryptocurrency has seen relatively fewer wild swings. 
As the volatility dissipates, some of the gains do too. And that weakness could continue into next year as well whereas bets on a "software development revolution" could fuel other cryptocurrencies.

Monday, December 20, 2021

Aussie-Yen creates roadmap for S&P 500

The Aussie serves as the “risk-on” piece because the country is the top global exporter of iron ore, among other commodities, and its primary trading partner is China. The Japanese Yen serves as the “risk-off” part, as Japanese assets often capture haven flows. The pair is also highly liquid, with both currencies among the five most traded in the world. Taken together, their global exposure through commodity, credit and FX markets can create a road map for other risk assets -- like the S&P 500. 
The Australian Dollar or "Aussie" versus the Japanese Yen
The chart shows the Auussie-Yen has been in a downtrend over the last two months since the Omicron variant headlines broke. And that's likely to continue into the holidays with thin liquidity and light trading volume. Add on this latest variant's rapid spread (and the global lockdowns that come with it) as well as the loss of Senator Joe Manchin's support for Biden's Build Back Better Plan (something that the market was counting on) and it suggests that maybe that traditional holiday "Santa Rally" for risk assets like the stock market is in jeopardy.

Tuesday, December 7, 2021

Electric cars: Stellantis (NYSE:STLA)

The Airflow will be Chrysler’s first all-electric vehicle and is due to hit roads in 2025. Chrysler plans to be an all-electric producer by 2028.
  • Chrysler is one brand inside of Stellantis, along with Fiat and Peugeot. Stellantis wants 70% of its new cars sold in Europe to be all-electric by 2030, along with 40% of its new cars sold in the U.S. 
  • PHOTO: Chrysler's Airflow all-electric concept sedan. COURTESY STELLANTIS
Stellantis (ticker: STLA) brand Chrysler unveiled a self-driving concept EV at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas. The new car is just the start for the former member of the Detroit-three group of auto makers. Chrysler wants to sell only electric vehicles by 2028.

The Chrysler Airflow is an all-electric sedan that will house Stellantis’ most advanced vehicle technologies. An Airflow, for instance, will be equipped with level three autonomous driving capabilities. That means drivers can safely stop paying attention to the road under certain, limited circumstances. Today’s autonomous driving features are classified as level two. That means cars can do a lot for drivers such as manage speed and even change lanes, but drivers still need eyes on the road 100% of the time.

In addition to self-driving technologies, an Airflow will include STLA SmartCockpit, which personalizes the driving experience, connecting work and home devices for a user. Per charge range is targeted at 350 to 400 miles. Pricing isn’t available yet.

Monday, November 29, 2021

Optical stocks

by market cap)                        
Ticker   Company name Mkt Cap (USD)
  1. CSCO   Cisco Systems 231.294B; San Jose, California
  2. MRVL  Marvell Technology  58.618B; Santa Clara, California
  3. CIEN  Ciena   9.331B; Maryland
  4. IIVI  II-VI Inc.  6.637B; Pennsylvania
  5. LITE  Lumentum Holdings  6.273B  California-based (Lumentum was spun off from JDS Uniphase in 8/2015). 
  6. VIAV  Viavi Solutions  3.52B; California
  7. INFN  Infinera  1.714B; California
  8. ADTN   ADTRAN  992M; Alabama
  9. NPTN  NeoPhotonics   809.93M; California
  10. AAOI  Applied Optoelectronics  161.33M; Texas-based
  11. LPTH  LightPath Technologies  52.91M; Florida


  • NeoPhotonics (NPTN) to be acquired by Lumentum (LITE) for approx. $918 mln. (Nov 2021)
  • Acacia Communications (ACIA) (Massachusetts) was acquired by Cisco Systems (CSCO) for $4.5 billion. (Jan 2021)
  • Coherent (COHR) acquired by Lumentum (LITE) (Jan 2021)
  • Finisar (FNSR) acquired by II-VI (IIVI) (Nov 2018)
  • Oclaro (OCLR) acquired by Lumentum (LITE)  (Feb 2018)
  • ClariPhy acquired by Inphi (IPHI) (Dec 2016).  Inphi (IPHI) (California) acquired by Marvell Technology (NASDAQ: MRVL) for $8.2 billion (October 2020).
©Artremis (EAS 11/30/21)

Thursday, November 4, 2021

Electric cars: Polestar

Polestar is a Swedish automotive brand established in 1996 by Volvo Cars' partner Flash/Polestar Racing and acquired in 2015 by Volvo, which itself was acquired by Geely in 2010. Geely describes the Polestar brand as "independent" from 2017 onwards and "co-owned" by it and Volvo Cars.
  • Founded: 1996
  • Headquarters: Gothenburg, Sweden
  • Parent organizations: Geely, Zhejiang Geely Holding Group (China)
  • Volvo was going bankrupt in the late 1990s and Sweden would not bail them out. So Ford bought Volvo in 1999 and then sold it to the Chinese company (Geely Motors) in 2010.
  • The Polestar 1 will be built at the rate of one or two per shift at a new Polestar specific plant in China.
Polestar signed an agreement in late September 2021 to be publicly listed through combination with Gores Guggenheim (GGPI), valuing the company at $20B.
Polestar will be 83% owned by the Chinese company Geely and the cars are being made in China. As reported, only 3.5% of the stock is available to the public.

Polestar CEO Thomas Ingenlath with the Precept

The Precept made its North American debut at a New York event Dec. 2. The car is a precursor of Polestar’s future design direction, and will reach production in modified form as the Polestar 5 in 2024. 

The Polestar 1's wheels measure 21 inches in diameter, fitted with 275/30 and 295/30 (rear) Pirelli P Zeros.

As it creates an identity separate from Volvo, Polestar is going public in a SPAC deal that will close early next year and implies an enterprise value for the company of $20 billion. Polestar has 25 showrooms in the U.S. now, but will grow that to 38 in 2022 and eventually 50, with access to 800 service centers. Customers in the U.S. will get home delivery, plus pickup and return for servicing. Polestar projects that 40 percent of its sales will be in Europe and the Middle East, 30 percent in Asia, and 30 percent in North America. 

Electric cars: Li Auto (NASDAQ:LI)

Li Auto Inc., also known as Li Xiang, is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer headquartered in Beijing, with manufacturing facilities in Changzhou. 
  • Founder and CEO: Xiang Li (2015–)
  • Founded: 2015
  • Headquarters: Beijing, China
  • Full Time Employees: 6,596
  • IPO: July 2020 (Nasdaq)
Li Auto competes directly with Tesla (TSLA) and Nio (NIO) in the high-end EV market. The company debuted its first and only model, an electric hybrid SUV called the Li ONE, in December 2019. That vehicle carries a price tag ranging from $29,000 to $76,000 and was one of China's top-10 sellers across all fuel types in 2020.
Li Auto's October 2021 deliveries totaled 7,649 vehicles. That number is up from 7,096 in September and a 107% year-over-year increase. Global chip shortages have weighed on production outputs for automakers like Li. But that supply-chain kink seems to be easing. LI stock edged lower on the news.

Li Unveils 2021 SUV Model
Li Auto rolled out the 2021 version of the Li ONE on May 25. The latest model includes upgrades to its advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) and powertrain systems.

These improvements will extend the range capacity of the Li ONE to 1,080 kilometers, or 671 miles. Deliveries of the vehicle began in June.

Li Auto's focus on cost-effective SUVs is the heart of its business strategy. The company was one of the first to successfully commercialize Extended Range Electric Vehicles (EREVs), which require a smaller battery pack. A smaller battery means lower production costs. And multiple power sources provide consumers with a practical solution to China's notorious lack of battery charging infrastructure.

Unlike most other electric vehicles, Li Xiang One is a plug-in hybrid vehicle (PHEV), which can be powered by either petrol or electricity

IPO: July 2020 (Nasdaq)

Founder and CEO Xiang Li 

Before Li Auto, Xiang Li established Autohome, a site for consumers to shop online for cars. By 2008, Autohome became China’s leading online platform for car dealers and consumers with its AI-generated content, comprehensive automobile library and extensive car listings. The company had an impressive 90 per cent market share.

In 2013, Autohome was listed on the New York Stock Exchange with a market value of US$3 billion.

Monday, November 1, 2021

Metaverse stocks

Metaverse -- a phrase first coined almost 30 years ago by science fiction writer Neal Stephenson in his 1992 book, "Snow Crash."

The nascent metaverse is the intersection of virtual reality, augmented reality, three-dimensional video environment, and an all-encompassing virtual environment. It's a combination of multiple elements of technology, including virtual reality, augmented reality, and video, where users "live" within a digital universe. Supporters of the metaverse envision its users working, playing, and staying connected with friends through everything from concerts and conferences to virtual trips around the world.

Unlike current VR, which is mostly used for gaming, this virtual world could be used for practically anything - work, play, concerts, cinema trips - or just hanging out.
  • Oct. 28, 2021: Facebook announced that it was changing its name to Meta, a reflection of its focus on the metaverse, a virtual world it sees as the future of the internet.
  • Months before Zuckerberg’s announcement, Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella was among the first American tech executive to refer to his company’s offerings as part of an “enterprise metaverse.” Chinese conglomerate Tencent, whose holdings include everything from social media apps to stakes in Hollywood studios, has also accelerated its efforts.
  • Tim Sweeney, the head of Epic Games (which makes Fortnite), has long spoken about his metaverse aspirations.  In recent years Fortnite expanded its product, hosting concerts, brand events, and more inside its own digital world. That impressed many with what was possible - and thrust Mr Sweeney's vision of the metaverse into the spotlight.
  • Earlier in 2021, the Ferrari 296 GTB was dropped into “Fortnite,” which became a test drive, so to speak, of how the automobile industry may use the metaverse. The game has become a sort of experiential lab and incubator of these ideas, said Donald Mustard, chief creative officer at Epic Games.
ETF:  META  Roundhill Ball Metaverse ETF (launched on June 30, 2021)
  • FB  Meta Platforms
  • MTTR  Matterport; a developer of a 3D media platform used to establish 3D and virtual reality models.
  • IMMR  Immersion;  a developer and licensor of touch feedback technology, also known as haptic technology
  • U  Unity Software; software solutions that are used to create, run, and monetize real-time 2D and 3D content across mobile devices, PCs, game consoles, and virtual reality devices
  • RBLX  Roblox; has 47 million daily active users that come to its platform to play games
  • NVDA  Nvidia; Graphics processing units (GPUs)
  • AAPL
  • NKE
  • MSFT  Microsoft; a mixed reality platform called "Microsoft Mesh" and cloud services called "Microsoft Azure."
  • AI
  • Tencent (OTCMKTS:TCEHY)