Wednesday, May 11, 2016

Market update: S&P 500 (11 May 2016)

  • Wed 5/11/16: S&P 500 gave up most of its gains from Tue (after disappointing Q1 earnings from Macy's, Disney, et al.)

10-month SPY

Waiting for the S&P 500 Index to reach a new high may prove rewarding if history is any guide, according to a report Tuesday by Stephen Suttmeier and Paul Ciana, analysts at Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit. The latest peak for the index occurred on May 21, 2015, or 355 days ago. Gaps of 300 days or more between 52-week highs were recorded 23 times since 1929, based on data cited in the report, and the S&P 500 averaged a gain of 15.6 percent in the 250 days after the later peak was reached.

Tuesday, May 3, 2016

Monetary policies around the world

  • US: only developed country whose last move was a rate hike.
  • Japan/Eurozone/Sweden/Norway/Australia all cut in '16.

Wednesday, April 27, 2016

Market update: S&P 500 (27 Apr 2016)

The Federal Reserve is keeping a key interest rate unchanged against the backdrop of a global economic slump and providing no hint of when its next rate hike may occur. A statement the Fed issued after its latest policy meeting notes that the United States is enjoying solid job gains despite a slowdown in growth. The Fed says it also expects inflation to move toward its 2 percent target from persistently low levels.

3-day SPY

10-month SPY

Thursday, April 7, 2016

Market outlook : Dow Jones (7 Apr 2016)

The red shaded area shows a resistance zone where rallies have died since the heavy volume August selling. The Dow Jones was beginning to test that price resistance zone when the negative divergence emerged, signaling slowing momentum to the upside. That's key here because the rising 20 day EMA has continually offered solid support for the bulls while momentum was accelerating to the upside. Now it's being challenged, but with slowing momentum more apparent.