Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Market update: Market volatility picks up (13 Sept 2016)

Market volatility has picked up after more than 40 consecutive days of below 1% daily moves.


Sunday, September 4, 2016

Market update: The technology sector (XLK)

The technology sector (XLK) has been very strong on a relative basis since the middle of 2013 and just recently that relative strength reappeared. Check out the longer-term absolute performance of the XLK and how it's performed relative to the S&P 500:

From the price low in the summer of 2011, the XLK has been performing very well.  But it didn't began outperforming the S&P 500 until July 2013 and that relative outperformance is shown above with the blue line.  There have been several industry groups within technology that have helped lead the group at various times, but currently that leadership role certainly belongs to semiconductors.

Wednesday, August 17, 2016

Market update: FOMC minutes from the July meeting.

A joint meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee and the Board of Governors was held in the offices of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday, July 26, and on Wednesday, July 27, 2016.

  • Stocks finished slightly higher today after the FOMC minutes showed a Fed divided over whether to hike interest rates.

  • Traders interpreted the minutes from the July 26-27 FOMC meeting to be slightly dovish. The meeting occurred before the release of a slew of U.S. economic data (Q2 GDP, July jobs report, July retail sales, PPI, CPI, industrial production, housing starts, etc.), so the fact that members generally wanted to see more data before hiking rates again is less relevant than it otherwise might be. New York Fed President William Dudley (FOMC voter) will give a press conference on Thursday morning and Fed Chair Yellen speaks at Jackson Hole on August 26.

    Nest day, Thur 8/18/16:

    SPY daily

    SPY weekly

    Friday, July 1, 2016

    Electric cars : BMW iNext

    Mobileye (MBLY) and Intel (INTC) are providing technology that BMW (BAMXY) will use in a fleet of self-driving cars it plans to introduce in 2021, the companies announced on 1 July 2016.

    BMW said it will use Mobileye and Intel technology for "highly and fully automated driving" in the BMW iNext, an all-electric vehicle. It will be the foundation for BMW Group's autonomous driving strategy and set the basis for fleets of fully autonomous vehicles "for the purpose of automated ride-sharing solutions," the announcement said.

    BMW initially announced the iNext at its annual shareholder meeting in May. CEO Harald Krueger told shareholders the iNext will be the company's "new innovation driver, with autonomous driving, digital connectivity, intelligent lightweight design, a totally new interior and ultimately bringing the next generation of electro-mobility to the road."

    "Today marks an important milestone for the automotive industry as we enter a world of new mobility," Mobileye Chairman Amnon Shashua said in the companies' press release. "Together with BMW Group and Intel, Mobileye is laying the groundwork for the technology of future mobility that enables fully autonomous driving to become a reality within the next few years."

    He said Mobileye will provide its "expertise in sensing, localization and driver policy to enable fully autonomous driving in this cooperation."

    Intel said it will provide "a broad set of in-vehicle and cloud computing, connectivity, safety and security, and machine-learning assets to this collaboration, enabling a truly end-to-end solution."

    Apple is rumored to be developing autonomous car technology. Apple hasn't confirmed those reports, but it recently invested $1 billion in Didi Chuxing, a ride-hailing service competing with Uber in China. Analysts theorize that its $1 billion investment in Didi is seen as part of those plans.

    Thursday, June 30, 2016

    Commodity turning point seen as confirmed after Brexit

    Commodity prices showed enough resiliency in the past week to suggest they reached “a key turning point” this year, according to Michael Shaoul, chief executive officer at Marketfield Asset Management LLC.

    In a report Thursday, Shaoul cited the ratio between the CRB Index and the S&P 500 Index, which started rallying in April after plunging 79 percent from a peak in July 2008. The CRB itself lost 3.1 percent in the first two days of trading after the U.K. voted to leave the European Union and rose 3.8 percent in the next two days.

    Friday, June 24, 2016

    Market update: S&P 500 post Brexit referendum (24 June 2016)

  • The S&P 500 fell 3.6 percent to 2,037.35, the most since August 24. The benchmark erased its gain for the year, which reached as much as 3.7 percent earlier this month. It closed at 2,037.30, down 76.02. The Dow dropped 611.21 points, or 3.4 percent, to 17,399.86, amid the biggest retreat since January.  The Nasdaq Composite Index tumbled 4.1 percent, the most in almost five years, to end the day at 4,707.98, a 202.06 point drop.  

  • U.S. stocks plunged the most in 10 months, joining a selloff in global risk assets on speculation that the U.K. decision to leave the European Union will hamper worldwide growth. Banks and industrial shares capped their worst single-day declines in more than four years.

    SPY before (6/23) and after (6/24) the Brexit vote

    The pound plunged the most in 30 years and European equities dropped as investors weighed the implications for the global economy.

    As if results of the U.K. vote wasn’t enough, today is also the date of the annual rebalancing of FTSE Russell’s stock indexes, a procedure that reliably exacerbates trading. In 2015, the reconstitution helped fuel a jump in volume to more than 10 billion shares, the seventh-highest total of the year.

    London bookies blew the Brexit call: none of the UK pollsters, bookmakers and city experts realised was there was a huge groundswell of anger

    Declines Friday also came after markets had rallied during the past week on optimism the U.K. would vote to remain in the EU, with the S&P 500 rising 1.7 percent in four sessions.

    The vote comes at a time when uncertainty already plagues U.S. stocks, with questions around the Fed’s ability to stoke growth after the worst month for hiring since 2010, a four-quarter decline in corporate profits, price-earnings ratios that are close to a decade high and a presidential election looming in the fall.

    The S&P 500 plunged 11 percent in its worst-ever start to a year before recovering through April. It’s
    virtually been stuck in place since, struggling to hold above the 2,100 level that has capped three rallies since November. It fell from that perch again after closing above it Thursday for the first time in two weeks.


    European banks

    S&P 500 heatmap